The recent local by-elections in Greenwich and Bexley have once again highlighted the struggles of the national government party, the Conservatives, while Labour managed to hold onto a safe ward in Bexley.
In Greenwich’s Eltham Town & Avery Hill ward, the Conservative candidate, Charlie Davis, managed to secure a win over Labour’s Chris McGurk. The ward’s demographics, which lean more towards the Conservative side compared to the rest of Greenwich, played a significant role in the outcome. The area’s history of swinging between Labour and Conservative also influenced the election results.
The by-election in Belvedere ward in Bexley saw Labour’s candidate, Jeremy Fosten, retaining the seat despite a decrease in their vote share compared to the previous election. The presence of Reform UK, with candidate Michael Pastor, also impacted the outcome, showcasing that the party still holds influence in certain areas.
These results suggest that former parliamentary candidates can perform well in local by-elections, especially in well-organized and demographically favorable wards. The rise of Reform UK as a viable political party at the local level is also a significant development, potentially affecting future elections in London.
Looking ahead to the 2026 London borough elections, the Conservatives, particularly in outer London, may face challenges if the right-wing vote is split between them and Reform UK. This scenario could benefit Labour, leading to a decline in Conservative support.
Overall, the recent by-elections provide valuable insights into the shifting political landscape in London and the growing influence of smaller parties like Reform UK. The results serve as a reminder of the importance of local demographics and party organization in determining election outcomes. As the political scene continues to evolve, the upcoming elections in 2026 will be crucial in shaping the future of London’s boroughs.
