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Sir Sadiq Khan has been all about that suburban rail devolution life, aiming to snatch a transport prize that no one before him could grab. He had a chitchat with Sir Keir Starmer last year, and after that, he was like, “Hey, keep an eye on this spot.” The Transport for London (TfL) swooping in to take over some major commuter lines has been on his to-do list for ages. And when the government said they were going to nationalize the rails, it seemed like the perfect setup for making Khan’s dreams come true. Khan even mentioned how the Department for Transport would be chatting with Mayors, like him, about which railways they could take over.

Fast forward to now, and the government has made some moves, passing laws to ditch rail franchises and laying out the initial blueprints for the Great British Rail agency (GBR) that will be in charge of the nationalized rail. They’ve also shared their ideas for giving more power to regional governments. So, are we close to seeing Khan’s aspirations become reality? Well, it’s a bit of a mixed bag.

Khan must have felt pretty good when his old transport sidekick, Heidi Alexander, became a transport minister and his former TfL boss, Lord Peter Hendy, nabbed the rail minister gig. Alexander wasted no time in her new role, calling for some serious devolution of the Govia Thameslink Railway franchise. But as things stand, the future is a bit uncertain.

The good news is that the stuff Khan already has control over, like the London Overground and the Elizabeth Line, will stay put and won’t be absorbed into GBR. The government also promised to keep talking to City Hall to figure out what’s next, giving mayoral authorities a more official role in managing the rail network in their areas.

But a full handover to City Hall doesn’t seem to be in the cards just yet. The government is talking about a bunch of “partnership” setups, from collaborating on local transport plans to maybe devolving specific services down the line. The final call will be made by the Secretary of State, so it’s not a done deal.

There’s a lot of fine print to go through, but some experts are already side-eyeing the idea of GBR being the big boss, overseeing everything and reporting directly to the minister. Lord Hendy didn’t exactly ease their minds when he talked about making sure devolution doesn’t mess things up for the railway network as a whole.

Alexander chimed in too, saying that GBR will have to juggle local and national interests and keep an eye on the cash flow. She’s not keen on devolving more rail services if it means losing out on the moolah. And let’s be real, no one wants to give up the profitable bits.

Khan has been down this road before, facing roadblocks from Whitehall in the past. But now, things are different. Mayors like Khan are expected to play a big role in the revamped rail system. The plan is for GBR to team up with TfL to make sure everything runs smoothly.

So, the pressure is on for Khan to make his case for devolution. He’s got a lot riding on this, especially with the Govia Thameslink franchise on the chopping block. The clock is ticking, and Khan needs to show that he can improve the service and bring in more riders and cash. It’s a big opportunity for him to take charge of suburban rail in London.

Overall, it seems like Khan is inching closer to his goal, but there are still hurdles to jump. With the government watching closely and the financial stakes high, Khan will need to bring his A-game to the table. It’s a waiting game now to see if his “once in a generation” chance pays off.